Astrology
#25
The core of all the arguments for astrology seem to circle around this...

Quote:Magnetically we are aligned to Earth, which is a giant magnet itself. ...Our seers of old understood this and devised ways to affiliate, correlate and correspond our activities with the electrical and magnetic properties of Earth....Either we call it vastu shastra or feng shui or astrology, the purpose remains the same: placing yourself and things around you (your home, your temple, your workplace) in alignment and relation to Earth’s magnetism or Earth’s place in the cosmic arrangement.

The article I took this from goes on to justify their claims by invoking Tesla!.
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#26
How is your son faring now dr.Kamat?
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#27
(27-May-2010, 07:17 PM)drnbala Wrote: How is your son faring now dr.Kamat?

He is now 36. After 26 surgeries, his left leg is 9 inches shorter than the right. He walks with difficulty wearing a prosthesis.
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#28
(27-May-2010, 10:14 AM)bala Wrote: The core of all the arguments for astrology seem to circle around this...

Quote:Magnetically we are aligned to Earth, which is a giant magnet itself. ...Our seers of old understood this and devised ways to affiliate, correlate and correspond our activities with the electrical and magnetic properties of Earth....Either we call it vastu shastra or feng shui or astrology, the purpose remains the same: placing yourself and things around you (your home, your temple, your workplace) in alignment and relation to Earth’s magnetism or Earth’s place in the cosmic arrangement.

The article I took this from goes on to justify their claims by invoking Tesla!.

Yes, I have heard this argument about Electromagnetism. In fact, an atheist who believes in Astrology even claimed it could be only sun's EM. Well, he is more like 'rationality doesn't satisfy your emotional need therefore you need mysticism or fantasy'.

Well, my question is whether astrology believes every event is a primary event because of EM. Or are there chances like a primary event giving rise to secondary, tertiary events that do not require EM? If those secondary, tertiary events do not require EM, can an astrologer predict or postdict them?
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#29
(27-May-2010, 10:14 AM)bala Wrote: The core of all the arguments for astrology seem to circle around this...

Quote:Magnetically we are aligned to Earth, which is a giant magnet itself. ...Our seers of old understood this and devised ways to affiliate, correlate and correspond our activities with the electrical and magnetic properties of Earth....Either we call it vastu shastra or feng shui or astrology, the purpose remains the same: placing yourself and things around you (your home, your temple, your workplace) in alignment and relation to Earth’s magnetism or Earth’s place in the cosmic arrangement.

The article I took this from goes on to justify their claims by invoking Tesla!.

Tesla was one of the greatest engineers ever, but he also had some fascination for the occult. Just because he had some great inventions, his ideas on the occult do not become correct. (Argument from authority)

As to Earth's magnetic properties, the astrologers are just talking out of their collective a**es. The ancient texts had no bloody clue about Earth's magnetic field and more importantly, how the Sun deforms it. Also, there are various household devices that have magnetic field strengths that are comparable to that of the Earths magnetic field (30-60 µT). I don't see those devices featuring in astrology calculations.
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#30
dear Dr Kamath,

I think we can look for a rational answer by doing some numbers.
I'd need help with some rough numbers on these lines:

Firstly, I see you mention 4 hits. Any other hits that you remember of? I will need that number.

Now, how many times does an average Indian's life intersect with astrology? Bear with me as I make some very rough (but what I deem as fairly average) estimates:

For one person:
Birth Horoscope -- 1
Marriage - 4-5 (Assuming an arranged marriage and that 4-5 alliances were sought)
Birth of children - 2-3
Marriage Horoscopes of these children 5*(2-3) ~= 10-15

Assuming a mediocre belief in Astrology, lets say the average candidate consults an astrologer at a personal level 5 times in his life. Why 5? lets say for education, jobs, personal tragedies, poojas etc etc.

Total = 25-30

So an average Indian of your generation (with a family of 2-3 children and a spouse) needed/used/forced-into astrology about 25 times. Now multiply this by at least 4 ? Why? because the hits that you remember were also to do with your relatives. Assuming you know at least 4 *close* (fair assumption on a lower side) relatives and friends of your generation with similar families, this number stands at about 100.

Now you have registered 4 hits out of possible 100 that you *could have known* if you were doing a controlled experiment. Now let us set our error margins, assuming I am bloating these numbers really badly, even then we have a success rate of only 4%. Now there could have been other hits that you may not have 'registered' because you simply weren't told about them by the people in this radius of people of interest in your life that I have created. Even if you were told of all the hits, I guess it would be safe to say that you would not register more than 50 hits (which is almost 12 times!).

Predictions that click stay etched and get reinforced repeatedly by emotions, I guess, especially when our dear and near ones are involved.

Dr Kamath let me know what you think of this answer.
Murthy

"Credulity kills" -- Carl Sagan
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#31
The point in the end that I was trying to drive home is, if Astrology is bullshit (Which we all know it is), we should expect a 50-50 hits percentage. Even then we are on the safer side of the calculation.

Of course, above calculation is supremely naive, but it does give us a fair idea about how to look at this problem objectively. Many consultations with astrologers cannot be subjected to truth tests. For e.g. simply drafting out a horoscope doesn't imply any prediction per se. But marriage/pooja/future/job consultations all include statements made by astrologers that can be subjected to true or false tests.
Murthy

"Credulity kills" -- Carl Sagan
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#32
Murthy, to add to this, it is perfectly possible that a single person has 100% hits in his or her life. What is probably more important is what is the hit percentage of all the predictions made by that astrologer, or rather, astrologers of his ilk on average.
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#33
Hi,

Quote:But marriage/pooja/future/job consultations all include statements made by astrologers that can be subjected to true or false tests.

I would classify the above consultations into three types: (a) predictive and (b) electional (c ) horoscope matching

If a question such as, "will I get married?" or "will I change my job?" is asked, one is seeking a prediction. The answer could be, for example, "no change in job for the next 13 months!"

If a question such as, "when is the good time to get married?" or "when is the right time to join the new company?" is asked, one is seeking an auspicious time. Fixing muhurtas or good time for performing a task comes under the head of electional astrology.

"Do the horoscopes of this boy and that girl match?" is a question asked to the astrologer to determine how "astrologically" compatible two people are.

The reason I brought this up is that if a person goes to an astrologer to either fix an "auspicious" time or to match horoscopes, he or she is most likely to obey the advise given. Later on, they may say, "I went to such and such a great person took his advice, therefore I am doing well in my job / I have a successful marriage / etc"

Out of the 100 odd times an average person may consult an astrologer, such consultations (for fixing muhurta or matching horoscope) increases the success rate of the astrologer! Determination of muhurtha and matching of horoscopes are based on specific set of rules and any one can learn these rules and apply them. These days, there are softwares available for these purposes and there is no need to consult any astrologer. Therefore, we must exclude such consultations and only look at predictions to find out statistically the success rate of astrologers.

Even in situations where the astrologer is consulted for predictions, sometimes it is difficult to assess whether the prediction was a success or failure. I will give an example to explain why I think so. There was this young man who had a good job in Bangalore. He applied for and got an even better job in Chennai. He went to an astrologer and asked, "will I change my job?". The astrologer studied the young man's horoscope and predicted, "no change in job for the next 13 months". The young man thanked him for his prediction and casually mentioned that he had already got a better job offer in Chennai.

Then the astrologer said, "your horoscope indicates that you will earn your livelihood by honest means. Just think of the kind of bribery, corruption that exists in other jobs. Your career will always be clean" - he was flattering the young man by making pleasing statements.

Next, the astrologer said, "see here, you are a decent person and you are staying here in Bangalore with your parents. They are growing older day by day. It is your duty to take care of your parents in their old age. Therefore, better to stay in Bangalore than go away to Chennai. " - here he was not only flattering the young man but also inducing in his mind a sense of guilt if he were to decide to go to Chennai.

These are common tricks played by astrologers to ensure success of their predictions. Therefore, out of the 100 odd times an average person may consult an astrologer, you must also remove such predictions wherein mind games were played by the astrologer to ensure his success.

After eliminating all these, you have that smaller set of predictions which may be considered in order to determine success rate.

.
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#34
Quote:What is probably more important is what is the hit percentage of all the predictions made by that astrologer, or rather, astrologers of his ilk on average.

This statement made me recall a very interesting conversation that I had with a senior gentleman a couple of years back. Until his retirement in the year 1996, he was very much into astrology. Not that he was running after astrologers every now and then for predictions. He interest was more academic and he learnt astrology by reading a number of books and also regularly buying and reading periodicals such as The Astrological Magazine, The Times of Astrology, Express Starteller, etc. Contrary to expectations that he might devote more time to astrology, he simply lost interest in the subject in just a year or two after retirement. Yes, he could and would fix muhurthas and also match horoscopes - things that software can do these days - but he didn't seem to care any more about making predictions or analyzing predictions that others made. When I asked him the reason for the change, this is what he said.

"These journals and periodicals have sections in them where the readers' technical difficulties in interpretation of horoscopes are addressed. For example, the experts answer queries of budding astrologers with suggestions of what specific astrological rules need to be applied to specific cases in order to arrive at correct predictions and so on.

"One such question was from an Indian settled in the US. He gave the date of birth of the case-study and asked for help in determining the astrological rules that need to be applied. The actual question was - Mr. xxx, whose date of birth is 10-3-1955 is from an orthodox hindu family which upholds traditional values. He went to the US to study MS and then settled in a good job there. His parents in India wanted him to marry a girl from the same community that was chosen by them after duly matching horoscopes etc. His horoscope indicates that he will marry a traditional girl from a respectable family. However, he rejected the proposal and instead married a latin american girl! What are the planetary indications in his chart that have caused this to happen?

"The expert made a brilliant analysis of the horoscope and gave his expert opinion on how and why this happened. In the next issue of the journal, there was a clarification requested - Sir, in your brilliant analysis you mentioned that Sun was posted in Aquarius but his horoscope was cast by the reputed astrologer Shri. yyy who indicates that Sun is in Virgo which is 210 degrees away from Aquarius! Please clarify!

"In the subsequent issue, the expert clarified that for those who are born between February 14th and March 14th of any year, Sun has to be in Aquarius and that the other astrologer had erred. In the next issue there was a clarification from the original reader that being settled in USA, he had got used to the American format of Month-day-Year and therefore, the actual date of birth was October 3rd, 1955 and not 10th March 1955 as inferred by the expert astrologer.

"In the next issue, the 'expert', without even an apology or a trace of remorse at his misinterpretation went on give another lengthy and equally brilliant explanation as to why the person had married outside his community. In conclusion, whatever be the date of birth, the expert could give a valid astrological reason for any event that has already happened! Making a genuine prediction is really difficult because of the enormous number of combinations of planets and houses that an astrologer had to consider. But after an event has occurred, the same difficulty gets converted into an advantage because now you have a large number of combinations to choose from to explain away any event!

The elderly gentleman concluded that this is what made him decide that it was not worth his while to pursue the subject any more.

.
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#35
Interesting!
Murthy

"Credulity kills" -- Carl Sagan
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#36
The online Vedic Astrology predictions are based on the Nakshatra of the Moon on that particular Day. Moon changes its Nakshatra in almost every 24 hours. So our Vedic Daily Astrology Prediction are based on MOON. It also tells you about your travel for the day so that you can plan it accordingly.
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