Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade
Quote:What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age.

[Image: sunspot_decline.jpg]
Ice skating on the Thames by 2025?
The announcement made on 14 June (18:00 UK time) comes from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin.

The Sun normally follows an 11-year cycle of activity. The current cycle, Cycle 24, is now supposed to be ramping up towards maximum strength. Increased numbers of sunspots and other indications ought to be happening: but in fact results so far are most disappointing. Scientists at the NSO now suspect, based on data showing decades-long trends leading to this point, that Cycle 25 may not happen at all.

This could have major implications for the Earth's climate. According to a statement issued by the NSO, announcing the research:

An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots [which occurred] during 1645-1715.
As NASA notes:

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past.
During the Maunder Minimum and for periods either side of it, many European rivers which are ice-free today – including the Thames – routinely froze over, allowing ice skating and even for armies to march across them in some cases.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," says Dr Frank Hill of the NSO. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."



Some annoying but not-so-unexpected reactions. I'll quote some from the DailyMail (Yes, guilty as charged)
Quote:So will this mean even more taxes as governments look for new ways of scamming us as they have done already with all this global warming nonsense?
- Nick Smith, Bath, 17/6/2011 10:23

I remember them predicting this years ago. So I guess warming and cooling will cancel each other out and we will all go about our lives as normal. Well except for the extra taxes some poltician will dream up for this.
- Me and Him indoors, Somewhere over there., 17/6/2011 12:40

So, does Al Gore think we control the sun too? Seriously, does anyone still believe in global warming?
- Nadine, Canada, 17/6/2011 7:29

WOW !! Whatever happened to *GLOBAL WARMING* ?? These useless bureaucrats at the UN will try anything just so they don't have to get an honest job !! It's time to boot out the lot of tham and save a lot of wasted energy !!
- Ishkandar, London, 17/6/2011 16:34

Well I guess thi means one thing - more taxes to pay fo combat global cooling
- Nigel, Derbyshire, 17/6/2011 7:09

I wonder how they will tax us when they admit it´s global cooling?????????????????????

Apparently the climate change "sceptics" have gone hysterical over this. Face Palm
"Take the risk of thinking for yourself, much more happiness, truth, beauty, and wisdom will come to you that way."
- Christopher Hitchens
[+] 1 user Likes Myst's post
Yeah, I'm sure the climate-change deniers are going bonkers over this. What they don't get is that the earth has been steadily warming up even as solar activity has been declining, which, if anything, only strengthens the evidence for global warming. As all ideologues, they look at the evidence selectively and always see it as supporting their preconceived views.
As for the solar activity drop and possibility of another Maunder Minimum, the announcements from researchers over the next few months should be interesting.
"Fossil rabbits in the Precambrian"
~ J.B.S.Haldane, on being asked to falsify evolution.
The Bad Astronomer explains what could have the reasons for The Little Ice Age:

He also brings up the same point that Ajita brought up:

Quote:And let’s not forget the elephant in the room: the amount of cooling we’d see from this even if it all came together would still be less than the global warming we’ve been experiencing since the 20th century. It might slow things down for a while, but the climate change we’re seeing now — and it’s real, folks — is more than enough to take on a little temporary cooling, especially local cooling.
[+] 1 user Likes Lije's post
Just to make sure this is noted, Plait's article that Lije posted dismisses the Daily Mail article by saying it "isn’t even within a glancing blow of reality".
"Fossil rabbits in the Precambrian"
~ J.B.S.Haldane, on being asked to falsify evolution.
(18-Jun-2011, 10:17 PM)Ajita Kamal Wrote: Just to make sure this is noted, Plait's article that Lije posted dismisses the Daily Mail article by saying it "isn’t even within a glancing blow of reality".

Well this is not a new idea certainly. There has been one maunder's minimum, which we do not understand very well. In astronomy its rather puzzling that I can tell with a fair amount of certainty that the age of the Universe is 13.7 billion years while we not being able to even understand the magnetic cycle of our star and its(possible) effect on our weather (if any). Maunder's minimum is one of the only observed periods from which we have reasonably accurate data.

The maunder's minimum find lead to a spurt of research into finding correlations between the earth's weather and the sun's magnetic cycle. There was found to be a correlation (remember correlation does not imply causality), which has sparked these concerns over a coming ice age and the associated global warming bashing. The only way to find out in the absence of more data is to actually see if we are plunged into a mini ice age.


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