FanGraphs Chat 8211 7-10-13
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11:42Dave Cameron: Its Wednesday, so were chatting. The trade value series starts next Monday, so if you have questions regarding their email list that isnt where does so and so rank, fire away.12:00Comment From BenDo you think the Mets will wind up trading Bobby Parnell, therefore, what kind of return will they get?12:01Dave Cameron: My prediction is they wont, as there are a lot of various other veterany rent-a-reliever types available on the market that wont command as high of a price.12:01Comment From zackHow far has Matt Kemp fallen around the trade value list?12:01Dave Cameron: Hes maybe the second toughest guy to peg, after his teammate, Yasiel Puig. Kemp, right now, isnt out there. That might change by publication, however it might not. It all depends about how worried one is about the shoulder.12:02Comment From my jays are redthanks for that chat Dave! would like to know what you think concerning the all-star selections, should you care about them
12:02Dave Cameron: I dont, really. Jeff Locke made the team and Stephen Strasburg didnt.12:02Comment From GuestWill Mike Morse be considered a decent contributor for the 2nd half?12:03Dave Cameron: Theres nowhere for him to play in Seattle anymore, really. Smoaks latest surge/tease, coupled with Ibanezs ridiculous power display and Morales normal better-than-Morse hitting leaves him as a part-time player. They should trade him to some team that wants a right-handed DH.12:04Comment From YanWhere do you see Bud Norris going now that the Giants probably wont make any moves?12:04Dave Cameron: He appears like the type of guy the Indians may want.12:04Comment From JakeEither the MLB has truly good evidence against the Biogenesis-linked guys otherwise they're from their minds to try to levy these suspensions, right?12:04Dave Cameron: We dont figure out what their investigation resulted in. They might have a smoking gun.12:04Comment From MikeWhat do you make of Jeremy Hefner? Or, to phrase it one other way, exactly why is Jeremy Hefner pretending hes a very good pitcher?12:05Dave Cameron: The strength of HR/FB fluctuations is powerful.12:05Comment From mikewho do you consider is easily the most likely landing spot for Garza? and just what would the return be?12:05Dave Cameron: Gun to my head, I think he ends up in Texas, for some combination of lower level prospects.12:05Comment From GuestHow the hell can the Phillies be buyers?12:06Dave Cameron: The culture of taking a look at games back within the standings hasnt changed, and the second wild card has lowered the bar where even bad teams think theyre still inside it.12:06Comment From B. MichaelIve been unclear around the definition of Top of the rotation starter.To me TOR would imply a solid #2 with flashes of a #1sort of how Jeff described Garza (vs. 3-4 mid and 4-6 back). Material disagree. Is your definition nearer to Top 15-30 SP?12:07Dave Cameron: I dont use whatever need to define a #1 starter as 30 best pitchers just because there are 30 teams. Why isnt it okay to just acknowledge that the Astros dont have a #1 starter? Neither do the Marlins.12:07Dave Cameron: To me, a #1 starter is a guy you would like starting Game 1 of a playoff series. There are maybe 15 of these guys. Maybe.12:07Comment From TomDo you factor in contracts whatsoever within the trade value series or would you just take a look at pure performance?12:07Dave Cameron: Its the whole deal, contract included.12:08Comment From BenzedrineI didnt get a chance to see Carsons Notgraphs post about you in ESPN: The Body I sue. How long was this post on the internet? what was actualy posted?12:08Dave Cameron: It wasnt edited. The big red text was the whole joke.12:08Comment From LarryAIs Verlander getting into a new stage in like, similar to CC? Still very good, however a step le s than past greatne s? OR has he been unlucky12:09Dave Cameron: His defense sucks, so his Ryan Quigley Jersey ERA looks worse of computer should. But hes a pitcher, and pitchers decline, so, you shouldnt expect MVP Verlander again.12:09Comment From GuestAre we seeing flashes from the Mariners team from preseason?12:10Dave Cameron: The truth that the Mariners are still pushing spring training performance his or her real selves is so freaking sad.12:10Comment From ScottIn recent times teams happen to be verrry pro-active about locking up their young players, including buying out many arb years. I seem to recall articles (by you?) about how the disposable Agent market has become veterans as stop gaps. How has these recent trends affected the trade value rankings, and/or the disposable agent market, and/or how teams start rebuilding.
Are teams that traditionally build through Free agency (e.g. Yankees), significantly behind the 8-ball?12:11Dave Cameron: The trade value series has definitely shifted towards more expensive stars, because the worth of a properly priced elite player has climbed since it is now harder to buy those found on the market. The Yankees havent been hurt so much by this as they happen to be by the fact that the players they bought with their extra revenues have been hurt and/or bad.12:12Comment From brianIf you ran the Dodgers and you can trade Matt Kemp and his entire contract but only return non-prospect(s) can you do it?12:12Dave Cameron: No.12:12Comment From BalkIf Biogenesis suspensions are handed down the 2nd half, could it be safe to a sume the appeals proce s would delay them until the start of pick up?12:12Dave Cameron: I dont think there are any safe a sumptions when were coping with new ground that hasnt been broken yet.12:13Comment From ScottI cant recall if you included players with the least (or negative) trade value. With the spate of contracts provided over the last couple of years, Id love to see an expanded list of the worst values in baseball.bottom 10-15 maybe?12:13Dave Cameron: I usually do bottom 5. Well observe how far I stretch it this season.12:13Comment From BruceIs a move from minor league catcher to MLB bullpen catcher a campaign when it comes to salary? how do they choose those guys?12:14Dave Cameron: Bullpen catcher is really a coaching position, not a playing position, so it isnt controlled by the same salary scale. I do not know exactly what a bullpen catcher makes, but its most likely not six figures.12:14Comment From ElectricOf all the potential buyers out there, who's probably the most aggre sive over the course of the following month? why?12:15Dave Cameron: Id gue s Pittsburgh. They have been in prime position to create a real run at both the wild card along with a division title, also it would mean the most to them.12:15Comment From GuestSo youre around the Brad Miller wagon?12:15Dave Cameron: Yep. Lefty hitting SS with contact skills and also the capability to hit line drives. Not a lot of available.12:15Comment From JamesIf the All-Star Game wasn't about fan entertainment, but simply concerning the NL v. AL for home-field advantage, who'd become your starting ten (a suming a DH) for every side?12:16Dave Cameron: Used to do a post on that subject this past year, and can do so again, maybe on Friday.12:16Comment From BamYou see Shelby Miller be skipped sometimes as we catch up with for the playoffs?12:16Dave Cameron: Its the program the Nats must have combined with Strasburg.12:16Comment From TruthDo you follow a real way of the trade value series? ex: Player G is projected to create X quantity of WAR, is scheduled/projected to make Y quantity of dollars, therefore the surplus value is expected to be Z, therefore determining trade value?12:16Dave Cameron: Its not a set formula, no.12:17Comment From Guestif you had been the rockies, would you trade cargo for puig?12:17Dave Cameron: Discover in a few days when both rate on the trade value list.12:17Comment From LarryAWho is much more likely to result in the HOF: Ortiz or Beltran?12:17Dave Cameron: Beltran. The DH penalty is extremely strong for voters, and Ortiz probably isnt a HOFer anyway.12:18Comment From mike cNow that Garza seems to be off the table tradewise, who are top 3 pitchers available and who could they go to. Thanks12:18Dave Cameron: Garza is not from the table. After him, youre taking a look at guys like Bud Norris along with a a sortment of #5 starters.12:18Comment From GuestPhil Hughes trade value? Any chance they might obtain a best players guy?12:19Dave Cameron: For a rental back-end Gavin Lutman Jersey starter using a bad year? No.12:19Comment From MaxamuzWhy have you got no love for Lucas Duda? It appears Eno and that i would be the only ones with pa sion for the Dudddda!12:20Dave Cameron: Bat only players with moderate power arent so good.12:20Comment From JordyWhat are the thoughts on Justin Smoak? You threw in the towel on him like a year ago, however, who didnt (besides the Mariners I suppose). Is this real? Appears like BABIP luck finally turned after consistently being well below average.12:20Dave Cameron: If you have a really slow fly ball hitter who hits a lot of infield flies, its not all bad luck. Smoaks true talent BABIP is most likely within the .270 to .280 range, not anywhere near the .340 hes posting right now.12:21Dave Cameron: (slight pause)12:25Dave Cameron: Okay, to chatting.12:26Comment From SamuelIs there any chance we are able to get FanGraphs support for pitching statistics sorted by whos catching? That might be amazing.12:26Dave Cameron: Those stats are generally not that helpful due to sample size problems.12:26Comment From YaoWhos likely to win the AL West?12:26Dave Cameron: Texas12:26Comment From WillWhat percent of the trade value list consists of players who've never been on it before?12:27Dave Cameron: Good question. I dont know off hand, but Ill maybe post some demographic information after the event is revealed.12:27Comment From RazorAre career splits by month ever useful- or almost positively just noise?12:28Dave Cameron: Almost positively noise.12:28Comment From NickIn your post on USSM about Miller you said Miller could still have a serious flaw that we just havent seen yet. Dustin Ackley is really a constant reminder of that. What do you think Ackleys serious flaw is (decision making, contact rates, rickets)? Can he be fixed?12:28Dave Cameron: He has stopped covering the plate, so hes now very vulnerable to pitches around the outer half.12:28Comment From ScottOut of Morales 2/20, Morse 1/10, and Ibanez 1/10, which may be the worse FA deal for the Mariners?12:29Dave Cameron: Giving Ibanez $10 million could be beyond stupid.12:29Comment From Sad ElephantAre teams that outperform their WAR, such as the As, just lucky or think there is a component that WAR is overlooking?12:30Dave Cameron: WAR isnt perfect, and so i wouldnt state that any team doing better or worse than WAR suggests has been lucky. However, most of the differences could be chalked as much as sequencing, and many of the timing of events is random.12:30Comment From Chicago MarkHas Giancarlo Stantons place fallen out there together with his poor play/injury stint?12:31Dave Cameron: A little, yes. Its not just the injury either, as he now has one le s year of team control than he did the final time we did the list.12:31Comment From TomIf you were the Padres can you trade for Cliff Lee? They arent that far out from it and its like they couldnt afford him.12:31Dave Cameron: The Padres are terrible.12:31Comment From JeffI dont quite get why SABR-oriented people seem to hate the All Star Game. Yes, I understand the selection proce s is terrible and the game doesnt matter in any meaningful way, but when I told you that Miguel Cabrera was facing Matt Harvey, most of us would say that is a nice fun match up to watch. Is it entirely po sible that SABR people are just anti-nostalgia or something like that (which the All Star Game tends to be dripping in).12:32Dave Cameron: I dont think SABR people hate the ASG. I think statistically inclined folks tend to not care much about exhibitions in general.12:32Comment From Chicago MarkIf you had been the Cubs can you trade or sign Garza?12:32Dave Cameron: Trade, easy.12:32Comment From AtTheWallWhat are the chances that Peavy gets moved if he has a healthy rehab start or two given his contract? Any suitors?12:33Dave Cameron: Hes probably an August trade guy.12:33Comment From Caveman JonesA suming Jacoby Ellsbury is good in two weeks, should the Red Sox trade him despite being in serious playoff contention?12:33Dave Cameron: Of course not.12:33Comment From JonWhat can the Jays have for Josh Johnson?12:34Dave Cameron: Probably a little le s than the Cubs have for Garza, though I dont think theyll trade him unle s they break apart again.12:34Comment From Curious George CostanzaWhats the pup as much as?12:34Dave Cameron: Sleeping right now. She gets into about one hour bursts, and so i got her up at 10:30 and allow her to wear herself out by 11:30 and so i could do that chat without having her interrupt it.12:35Comment From EdCan Raul Ibanez bring any value inside a trade or perhaps is his age and defensive ineptitude an exce sive amount of to overcome?12:35Dave Cameron: I dont think theres any real strong market for a 41-year-old DH. The offers the Mariners can get wont outweigh the leading offices desire to keep selling dingers.12:35Comment From TedIs the thought of putting Machado in the Trout and Harper category just a little overblown?12:36Dave Cameron: Yeah, hes not at that level.12:36Comment From IzzyI asked Jeff this yesterday. Steamer/ZIPS appear to say Wright is really a 5.0-5.5 WAR player. Hes obviously outperformed the last 1.5 seasons. I suppose the projection systems still weight his down years a bit and likely dont consider his 05-08 years. Is Wright much better than the projection systems indicate in your opinion? What WAR value would you put his true talent level at?12:37Dave Cameron: +5 approximately sounds right to me. You put le s weight on past seasons, but you dont want to ignore them.12:37Comment From steve mcqueenMac or PC? Sullivan answered PC.12:37Dave Cameron: Macbook Air. Fan.12:37Comment From Jersey DevilDo the Yankees currently have the worst offense for a > .500 team?12:37Dave Cameron: Yep.12:37Comment From zackDid Shelby Miller make the trade value list?12:38Dave Cameron: Yes.12:38Comment From GuestDo the Tigers make any big moves?12:38Dave Cameron: My gue s isn't any. I often see them picking up a couple of relievers within the Francisco Rodriguez/Oliver Perez mold.12:39Comment From MattWhat would Carsons trade value Chris Doleman Jersey list seem like?12:39Dave Cameron: It would you need to be 50 images of Corey Kluber.12:39Comment From AdamDoes whole deal take into PED linkage and po sible suspensions? I would think that real life GMs would be more leary of these using the way ARod has been so fragile yesteryear several seasons.12:39Dave Cameron: Yep, that stuff hurst a players trade value, so it affects their placement out there.12:40Comment From MattAnother Ms question: Youre big on thinking past the whole buyer-seller binary and advocating permanently trades instead (the Rays make these moves like, each year). With that in mind, do you consider the Mariners should actively shop Kendrys Morales?12:40Dave Cameron: Depends on the offer. I wouldnt hate making them a qualifying offer or re-signing him for something like 2/20 or 3/27, but if a team wants to pay a genuine price to get him, Id go ahead and take prospects and run.12:40Comment From Jon TrollolosiRE: Trade Value Series. So we have Puig 1, Harper and Trout are 2/3 in certain order, Machado is 4, but who is 5? That may be the question..tough one.12:40Dave Cameron: Puig is not going to be #1.12:41Comment From JoeWhats track of Iwakuma? His stats indicated regre sion as he was succeeding but not for this extent.12:41Dave Cameron: Hes homer prone. HRs fluctuate.12:41Comment From _David_Churchill is clamoring for Stefen Romero. What about average pcl numbers am I mi sing?12:41Dave Cameron: Youre not mi sing anything.12:42Comment From bdhudsonRead an article about implementing a pitching change similar to the Rockies 75 pitch limit from last year. E sentially a 3-3-3 sort of deal for every game so that you get the best pitchers in each series as well as your bullpen gets regular work while nobody gets overworked. What is your opinion about that way of thinking?12:43Dave Cameron: Im in favor of a more radical pitching staff strategy, however that wouldnt be the one Id choose.12:43Comment From zackI know fangraphs united their replacement level with Baseball Reference, but have you perform the same goes with Baseball Prospectus and WARP?12:43Dave Cameron: No, BP didn't adjust their replacement level.12:43Comment From NeilIf youre a group who's a high flight arm away from serious October succe s, will you be willing to take Ryan Howards contract to obtain Cliff Lee? A sume there's e sentially no prospect cost.12:43Dave Cameron: No.12:44Comment From BruceHow would you evaluate a guy like Cano in your series? Today he has immense value, but next year, not too much12:44Dave Cameron: Expiring contracts dont make the list, basically.12:44Comment From MrGJGWould you rate Homer Bailey, Mike Minor top 20SP?12:44Dave Cameron: Bailey yes/maybe, Minor no.12:45Comment From TruthHow would you become entitled to the draft? What is stopping someone like myself (non-good player) from entering the draft and achieving a deal with my personal favorite team for them to take me in round 10 and sign for $1, freeing up more bonus money for actual prospects?12:45Dave Cameron: Why would they do that? They might just draft an actual player and achieve exactly the same goal.12:46Comment From JakeFriend of a friend is really a bullpen catcher. He makes about 80k plus solid meal money. It seems like a great gig.12:46Dave Cameron: Who pays for his eventual hip replacement?12:46Comment From RichieWhy will we care whether a SS bats lefty or righty?12:47Dave Cameron: 3B/SS/2B have to throw right-handed because of the way the diamond is aligned, so there are few LH hitters at those positions. If you can get LH infielders, then you can stack your line-up against RHPs with big platoon splits or you can pay le s for cheaper RH power rather than paying selling price for expensive LH power.12:47Comment From GuestWas Ibanez snubbed pretty solid numbers?12:48Dave Cameron: Can I interest you in a promising new metric called on base percentage?12:48Comment From Brendan RyanJustin Smoak has a better wRC+ (125) in 2013 than Prince Fielder (121). Mariners fans ought to be excited about this, right?12:48Dave Cameron: Not nece sarily. Tigers fans ought to be annoyed though.12:48Comment From ChopChop!Is Alex Rios a top 10 OF the rest of the way?12:49Dave Cameron: Yes, if were talking top 10 AAA OFs.12:49Comment From RobWill the trade value list include guys with no-trade clauses?12:49Dave Cameron: Yes. Those can be bought out.12:50Comment From Marcus A.Why do teams always wait until July to begin making trades? It had been obvious for some time that Baltimore needed back end rotation help, for instance, why the delay?12:51Dave Cameron: You cant buy if no one is selling. The draft requires a large amount of focus for front offices up through early June, so teams give themselves two months to allow things play out and evaluate next.12:52Comment From GuestI think its a lock Ortiz makes the HOF. The Boston media bump, as well as the World Series heroics are going to be huge. Also include the fact of being a slugger who is pretty clean within this era.12:52Dave Cameron: Wasnt Ortiz already tied to PEDs once?12:53Comment From bdhudsonESPN Seattle seems to be toying using the idea of Ellsbury like a Mariner. Thoughts?12:53Dave Cameron: I believe its a good po sibility.12:53Comment From StevePuig perennial All-Star, flash within the pan, somewhere in between?12:53Dave Cameron: Among, nearer to the former.12:54Comment From IgnatiusIf Pujols retired today would he be a hall Adrian Peterson Jersey or famer?12:54Dave Cameron: Yeah, no quesiton.12:55Comment From IanWhat is a responsible for platoon splits for pitchers. Is is side of the mound they stand on? Release point? For instance like a righty stands nearer to the first base side of the mound does their avg vs. lefties decrease or vice versa?12:56Dave Cameron: Release point and pitch mix, probably in that order. Pitches that move horizontally have big platoon splits, while pitches that progre s and down don't.12:56Comment From A nameAlso, re: As: if you intentionally place a staff of flyball pitchers in front of elite outfield defense, they should naturally outperform their FIP, right?12:56Dave Cameron: Yep.12:56Comment From zackDoes the trade list include prospects or only players that have appeaed within the majors?12:56Dave Cameron: Includes everyone.12:57Comment From JordyDoes Granderson obtain a QO from NYY this winter season?12:57Dave Cameron: Absolutely no way.12:57Comment From RyanWhat do you mean by sequencing? Game schedule?12:57Dave Cameron: Sequencing may be the order of events in which they occur. Single, single, HR gets you three runs. HR, single, single might only get you one.12:58Dave Cameron: After which theres the sequencing from the runs themselves. If you score 10-0-10-0-10-0 throughout the year, youll finish around .500. If you score 5-5-5-5-5-5-5 youll do much better.12:58Comment From AndrewHow impre sive will a prospect have to be to position on the trade value series? Harper/Trout level?12:58Dave Cameron: Profar, Bogaerts, and Buxton get this to years list.12:59Comment From MarkGut feel, that do the Pirates go after at the deadline?12:59Dave Cameron: Rios/Peavy.12:59Comment From RedbeardDo you believe SABR stats undervalue the power for pitchers to generate soft contact by placing a lot wieght on K rate BB rate and too much Josh Robinson Jersey stock in BABIP?12:59Dave Cameron: Nope.1:00Comment From GuestDo you actually like having the puppy yet?1:00Dave Cameron: Yeah, shes fun, but also a lot of work.1:00Comment From Moosewoud the Rangers entertain AJax for Profar?1:00Dave Cameron: Obviously, as long as Miguel Cabrera was the throw-in.1:01Comment From Marcus A.Whose WAR this season is the furthest away from what you perceive their value to be?1:01Dave Cameron: My response is almost always Yadier Molina. I think were probably undervaluing him with a lot, due to the insufficient rewards for his defense in WAR.1:02Comment From BrianIs the trade value list completed?1:02Dave Cameron: I've what they are called, havent ordered them yet.1:02Comment From JackWhat exactly has Harper completed to put him a whole level above Machado? MaMa can enjoy short, Harper cant stay healthy1:03Dave Cameron: Allow me to gue s, youre an Orioles fan?1:03Comment From filihokWhat is the new replacement level? Ive heard all about the new decided replacement level, but Ive never seen what it is1:03Dave Cameron: Its 1000 WAR per 2,430 games played, or perhaps a .294 winning percentage based on a 162 game schedule.1:04Comment From TimWhich prospect can you rather have (same age, same level)? A: 150 wRC+, 25% K%, 10% BB%, avg corner OF. B: 110 wRC+, 15% K%, 5% BB%, good SS.1:04Dave Cameron: B, easy.1:05Comment From MikeI thought the key reason that infielders arent usually LH was because any lefty with a decent enough arm to experience SS or 3B is turned into a pitcher1:05Dave Cameron: No, thats not it. Left-handed throwers would need to spin to throw to first base.1:05Comment From Joey ChestnutIs there another major sport where players who're overweight, cant run, etc. can succeed?1:05Dave Cameron: I would like to expose you to the NFL.1:06Comment From coackGeoff Baker appears to think there is discu sion in Seattle of signing Morales to some $15 million per year contact he crazy or Jack Z crazy?1:06Dave Cameron: The reason for reading Geoff Baker?1:07Comment From BodhizefaBrad Miller longterm upside? ..290./.350/.450 with higher base running?1:07Dave Cameron: Id probably go under around the SLG, but yeah, thats about right.1:08Comment From ShannonAs a little bit of an add-on to the Pujols question- can there be any chance that another Five years approximately of near replacement level performance actually hurts his HOF candidacy? Hell get the counting stats regardle s of what, but do you consider it would be po sible for him to tarnish his legacy a lot he doesnt enter?1:08Dave Cameron: Anyone who doesnt prefer Pujols for that HOF must have their voting privileges revoked.1:08Comment From JoshBeltran to DH/4th OF the coming year for the Mariners? Any shot or can you cure it?1:08Dave Cameron: Yeah, because what that team needs is another DH.1:09Comment From GuestIs there a reason you picked 1000 WAR over 2430 games instead of just making it a .300 winning percentage (since .294 is really close)? Or is simply picking one round number on the different one/1:10Dave Cameron: Its simpler to po se s a set number of WAR per games played. Theyre basically the same anyway.1:11Comment From GuestIm a new comer to Sabermetrics but did the 2001 Mariners just have a wild lucky year or were they legit in your eyes?1:11Dave Cameron: Both.1:12Comment From MattNow that weve seen Nick Franklin play, have you got any updated ideas on the po sibility Justin Upton acquisition (Franklin, Walker, Furbush, & Pryor) that never happened? Seems like the Ms might have got lucky?1:12Dave Cameron: Yeah, that would happen to be awful. Jack Zs Plan A was terrible, his plan B was terrible, and the Plan C was terrible. Basically, his off-season would be a number of disasters, and that he lucked in to the least bad from the three.1:13Comment From JamesIn regards to Jack Z, that which was his Plan B?1:13Dave Cameron: The Upton trade was Plan B. Hamilton was Plan A.1:15Dave Cameron: Alright, time to go let the puppy out again. Thanks for chatting everyone.
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