Heuristics and Biases - A talk

[Lije]

An interesting talk about conjunction fallacy, occams razor, computational basis for deciding what is simple and what is not, hindsight bias, utility of a theory lies in what it cannot predict.

[arvindiyer]

Related aside: This BBC Horizon documentary surveys some of the biases which human decision-making is prone to (eg. priming, probability distortions as described by Prospect Theory, tendency for post hoc rationalization) and some methods to aid better decision-making (eg. overcoming indecision by 'externalizing') illustrated in decision-making settings such as dating and shopping.





It is an interesting watch in a 'pop-sciencey' way, except for the inclusion of a section on precognition as claimed by the Institute of Noetic Sciences, controversial claims which according to the mainstream scientific community are themselves a study in biases.

[arvindiyer]

(10-Mar-2012, 11:47 AM)arvindiyer Wrote: It is an interesting watch in a 'pop-sciencey' way, except for the inclusion of a section on precognition as claimed by the Institute of Noetic Sciences, controversial claims which according to the mainstream scientific community are themselves a study in biases.

Here is a recent article on the whyevolutionistrue blog, reporting a new study that failed to replicate the previously reported findings about 'precognition'.

Tests of the supernatural fail again: new study can’t replicate findings of precognition